Scenario # 1
In the summer of 2012, Apple introduces the next generation versions of the iPhone and iPad. These devices have a new 30 Pin Dock Connector port capable of accepting both USB and Thunderbolt connections. In an agressive move by Apple, both the iPad and iPhone ship with a Thunderbolt 30-Pin cable in the box as a standard option. A USB cable is sold seperately. Updates to Mac laptops and desktops in late 2012/early 2013 drop Firewire ports entirely and contain a majority of Thunderbolt ports. USB 3.0 is never an option. Expensive Thunderbolt adapters are made available for devices with legacy or USB 3.0 connections. Beyond 2013, Apple drops USB ports on their computers altogether.
Other PC OEMs continue their slow rollout of USB 3.0 computers. Tablets and Smartphones from manufacturers like HP and Motorolla begin to offer USB 3.0 compatibility while favoring wireless management solutions like the ones offered by the Android platform. OEMs adopt a “wait and see” approach in regards to Thunderbolt.
Professional AV/Storage vendors produce and bring to market equipment that feature USB 3.0 and Thunderbolt connections. The profesionnal market overwhelmingly favors Thunderbolt for their workflow. PC OEMs begin to offer Thunderbolt connections on top of the range machines to meet this demand.
Consumer electronics vendors, while mainly offering USB 3.0 connected devices, begin to offer Thunderbolt connected devices, mainly cameras, as part of their high end offerings. Combined with the ubiquity of iOS devices, a mass market demand for Thunderbolt enabled PCs begins to form. Going into the fall of 2013, thanks to lowering component costs, PC OEMs begin to offer Thunderbolt and USB 3.0 connections on most of their products. Consumers are increasingly able to find electronics of all prices with either USB or Thunderbolt connections.
Over the course of 2013, with the aid of government investment and legislation, high speed broadband and wireless networking access is available throughout the United States, finally making cloud based computing solutions feasable for most of the population.
iPhone and iPad releases that year are connected by Thunderbolt exclusively. Furthermore, full cloud syncing features are implemented through updates to both iOS and Mac OS (X?). This untethered experience is available only to Mobile Me Subscribers.
Over the next few years, the market penetration of Thunderbolt Devices, led primarily through sales of iOS devices, matches and surpasses that of USB 3.0, which is gradually phased out from the industry entirely. Thunderbolt becomes the new standard for I/O in the personal computing market. Meanwhile, R&D labs are hard at work on the search for an even faster connection standard.
Everyone is happy.
Scenario # 2
In the summer of 2012, Apple introduces the next generation versions of the iPhone and iPad. These devices have a new 30 Pin Dock Connector port capable of accepting both USB and Thunderbolt connections. The iPad and iPhone continue to ship with the standard USB 2.0 30-Pin cable in the box; a Thunderbolt cable is sold seperately. Updates to Mac laptops and desktops in late 2012/early 2013 continue to offer more Thunderbolt ports along with USB 2.0 and Firewire 800. USB 3.0 is never offered. Expensive Thunderbolt adapters are made available for devices with legacy or USB 3.0 connections.
Other PC OEMs, led by HP, throw their support behind USB 3.0, never releasing Thunderbolt enabled computers. Tablets and Smartphones from manufacturers like Blackberry and Motorolla begin to offer devices with USB 3.0 compatibility but favor wireless management solutions like the ones offered by the Android platform.
Professional storage vendors like Lacie produce and bring to market equipment that feature USB 3.0 and Thunderbolt connections. The profesionnal market overwhelmingly favors Thunderbolt for their workflow. They flock to Apple solutions, the only computer vendor supporting Thunderbolt.. Pro A/V equipment from manufacturers like Canon, Sony and Nikon adopts USB 3.0 exclusively. Adoption of USB 3.0 trickles down into consumer level products.
While component costs for Thunderbolt become cheaper, USB 3.0 manufacturing costs are even cheaper. Adoption of the latter technology greatly surpasses the former’s.
During the course of 2013, with the aid of government investment and legislation, high speed broadband and wireless networking access is available throughout the United States, finally making cloud based computing solutions feasable for most of the population.
iPhone and iPad releases that year have replace the USB 2.0 connection with USB 3.0. Thunderbolt is still offered through accessory cables. Furthermore, full cloud syncing features are implemented through updates to both iOS and Mac OS (X?). The untethered experience is available to all iOS users. Mac releases that year begin to replace USB 2.0 ports with USB 3.0 ones to meet market demands.
Over the next few years, a transition from USB 2.0 to 3.0 is succesfully completed. Thunderbolt ports remain exclusive to the Mac platform and are used primarily by professionals for speedy connections to external storage. USB 3.0 becomes a new standard for I/O in the personal computing market. Meanwhile, R&D labs are hard at work on the search for an even faster connection standard.
Almost everyone is happy.